They essentially made Fallout 3 from scratch.
Fallout 4 Release Date Pushed To 2015?
At least they have some idea what they will or will not be doing and how to do it.
But, they still have to make Fallout 4 from scratch as well. We would expect them to spend far more time on Fallout 4 because they didn’t really go out of their way to be fully original for Fallout 3.
They still have to remake them for the new engine.
They have to come up with a whole new games worth of ideas (original ideas hopefully this time) and Fallout 4 will most likely be for the next gen console systems.
Skyrim was 11/11/11 right?
So that is 16 months ago. Even if they went full force on Fallout 4 as of 11/12/11 that would still mean a good two years or so worth of work left.
Based on how Fallout 3 took over 36 months of work. We doubt they went full force on Fallout 4 the next day after The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim.
We also have to factor in New Vegas.
Which was made to fill the time gap between Fallout 3 and Fallout 4. Could be Bethesda’s way of saying “Hey you’re going to have to wait awhile.”
People think “well Fallout 3 came out in 2008! So Fallout 4 must be close now.” Forgetting New Vegas is there.
So really its only been two odd years since the last Fallout, not five years.
Our guess would be mid to late 2015.